Last week's most illustrious visitors to the United States, Pope Francis and Chinese President Xi Jinping, couldn't be more different. But both decided to use their visits to try to bring the world a step closer to curbing global warming. The pope repeated the strong call for environmental stewardship that he had made with his latest encyclical, Laudato Si, and Xi Jinping announced that China will launch a cap-and-trade system for carbon emissions in 2017.
But there was another announcement that got lost amid the bustle of Climate Week, the UN general assembly, the Clinton Global Initiative, and the resignation of the Speaker of the House: according to a new study, if we unleash technological innovation, we can cap CO2 emissions at 2015 levels, instead of seeing them increase by 20% between now and 2030.
The main argument against taking action to reduce carbon emissions has always been economic. We don't want to harm productivity, growth, jobs or competitiveness by spending money on clean energy or emissions reductions. But if what the study says is true, we are at a tipping point. We can now have low carbon emissions without sacrificing economic growth. Economic growth has effectively been decoupled from emissions growth.
The study was produced by Accenture and commissioned by the Global e-Sustainability Initiative (GeSI), a partnership of information and communication technology (ICT) companies focused on sustainable development.
The report, called #SMARTer2030, analyzed the expected worldwide benefits from smart technology in a number of areas, looking forward to 2030. The areas were: mobility, manufacturing, agriculture, building, and energy. The study predicted that under a "business as usual" scenario, carbon emissions would increase by 11.1 Gigatonnes (Gt), or more than 20% of the 2015 level of 52.4 Gt, between now and 2030. But under a scenario that weaves in what we can reasonably expect from ICT innovation, 12.08 Gt of carbon emissions could be cut over the next 15 years, while extra revenue growth of over 6 trillion dollars and cost savings close to 5 trillion dollars would be achieved. Other benefits include connecting 2.5 billion more people to ICT services, including e-healthcare and e-learning, by 2030. (GeSI is proud to note that during this same time period, the carbon footprint of its own ICT member companies would increase 9.7 times less than the carbon savings they expect to generate.)
This is hugely good news.
It also makes logical sense, when you think about the money and the carbon emissions you can save by telecommuting or having accurate weather and soil information available on a farmer's smartphone. The Accenture study assumes that smart agriculture will deliver a 900 kg crop yield increase per hectare in the coming 15 years. That will not only cut costs, produce more food for a growing population, reduce deforestation, and cut carbon emissions, but it will also promote better use of water. Across all the sectors analyzed, Accenture predicts savings of 25 billion barrels of oil and 300 trillion liters of water. The number of cars on the road is expected to decrease by 135 million globally as car sharing and public transportation improve.
By the way, GeSI and Accenture produced similar reports in 2008 and 2012, and they note that innovation has actually produced better and faster results than they had predicted. In 2012, forecasts for 2020 global emissions were revised down from 2008 forecasts for the same period, based on actual energy efficiencies realized between 2008 and 2012, along with updated data. A similar thing happened with the current report.
This year's study took into account disruptions to business models that are happening now. For example, Accenture expects ICT to "place the customer at the center of a user focused service, cutting resource inputs at the same time." Smart manufacturing, including virtual manufacturing, customer centric production, circular supply chains and smart services, is expected to cut CO2 emissions by 2.7 Gt. Another example is in healthcare: "ICT will put a doctor in your pocket, allowing users to manage their own health via their smart device." And of course smart grids and the changes our energy utility-centered model is undergoing can both cut carbon emissions and generate new revenue opportunities.
Perhaps the most exciting point the study makes is the exponential nature of ICT innovation. As more people get connected, and as more people share their ideas, more innovative solutions emerge. They generate more, and more, and more. "As the technology-fluent millennial generation grows more affluent and demands more flexibility from the goods and services its members buy, opportunities abound for organizations to respond in ever more innovative ways," the report says.
Where will it stop?
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